Prediction accuracy
Every call on the record · updated 29 October 2026
Every match prediction Ranked XI shows is frozen before kickoff and scored against the result. The frozen odds, the ratings they came from and the time they were frozen are stored together and never edited. A game that never gets played is marked void, not deleted.
Predictions cover the professional leagues only: MLS, the USL Championship, USL League One, MLS Next Pro, NWSL and the USL Super League. We don't publish odds on amateur, college or youth games, so there's nothing to score there.
Live record
181 games scored since Sep 29. The most likely result happened in 52% of them, with a Brier score of 0.590 (always guessing a third each scores 0.667; lower is better).
| League | Games | Called correctly | Brier score | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All leagues | 181 | 52% | 0.590 | 0.993 |
| MLS | 78 | 44% | 0.632 | 1.052 |
| NWSL | 24 | 67% | 0.525 | 0.901 |
| USL League One | 23 | 30% | 0.638 | 1.062 |
| USL Championship | 56 | 66% | 0.538 | 0.923 |
| Our pick's chance | Games | Predicted | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 39 | 38% | 31% |
| 40-50% | 88 | 45% | 47% |
| 50-60% | 35 | 54% | 77% |
| 60-70% | 17 | 63% | 71% |
Latest scored predictions
| Date | League | Game | Home / Draw / Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | MLS | San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids | 46% / 25% / 29% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | Seattle Sounders v Houston Dynamo | 42% / 26% / 32% | 0–1 ✗ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego FC | 53% / 24% / 23% | 4–1 ✓ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | Austin FC v Real Salt Lake | 41% / 26% / 34% | 1–2 ✗ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | Chicago Fire v Orlando City | 48% / 25% / 27% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | FC Dallas v Columbus Crew | 50% / 25% / 26% | 0–2 ✗ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City | 50% / 24% / 25% | 3–1 ✓ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union | 54% / 24% / 23% | 0–0 ✗ |
| Oct 29 | MLS | St. Louis City SC v Portland Timbers | 49% / 25% / 26% | 2–3 ✗ |
| Oct 28 | MLS | Charlotte FC v CF Montreal | 53% / 24% / 23% | 4–0 ✓ |
| Oct 28 | MLS | Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati | 50% / 24% / 25% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 28 | MLS | New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls | 51% / 24% / 25% | 3–2 ✓ |
| Oct 28 | MLS | NYCFC v Atlanta United | 47% / 25% / 28% | 2–1 ✓ |
| Oct 28 | MLS | Toronto FC v DC United | 45% / 25% / 30% | 2–1 ✓ |
| Oct 26 | MLS | LAFC v LA Galaxy | 47% / 25% / 28% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | NWSL | San Diego Wave v Boston Legacy FC | 63% / 21% / 16% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | NWSL | Kansas City Current v Washington Spirit | 53% / 24% / 23% | 2–1 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | NWSL | Orlando Pride v NJ/NY Gotham | 30% / 25% / 45% | 1–2 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | Portland Timbers v Charlotte FC | 39% / 26% / 36% | 3–2 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | San Diego FC v Seattle Sounders | 41% / 26% / 34% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | USL League One | AV Alta FC v Corpus Christi FC | 34% / 26% / 40% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC v Las Vegas Lights | 39% / 26% / 35% | 2–1 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | USL Championship | Phoenix Rising v Lexington SC | 38% / 26% / 37% | 3–3 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | USL Championship | Sacramento Republic v Oakland Roots | 65% / 20% / 15% | 3–2 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps | 36% / 26% / 38% | 1–0 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City SC | 38% / 26% / 37% | 3–0 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | USL Championship | Colorado Springs Switchbacks v FC Tulsa | 45% / 25% / 30% | 2–0 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive v New Mexico United | 51% / 24% / 25% | 0–1 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | NWSL | Angel City v Bay FC | 69% / 19% / 13% | 2–0 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | FC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes | 45% / 25% / 30% | 3–0 ✓ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United | 49% / 25% / 26% | 0–0 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | MLS | Sporting Kansas City v Austin FC | 39% / 26% / 35% | 1–2 ✗ |
| Oct 25 | USL Championship | San Antonio FC v Orange County SC | 56% / 23% / 21% | 2–1 ✓ |
| Oct 24 | MLS | Atlanta United v Chicago Fire | 36% / 26% / 38% | 2–3 ✓ |
| Oct 24 | MLS | DC United v FC Cincinnati | 41% / 26% / 33% | 0–2 ✗ |
| Oct 24 | MLS | Orlando City v NYCFC | 45% / 25% / 30% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 24 | MLS | Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution | 42% / 26% / 32% | 1–2 ✗ |
| Oct 24 | USL League One | Fort Wayne FC v Athletic Club Boise | 38% / 26% / 37% | 0–2 ✗ |
| Oct 24 | USL League One | Sarasota Paradise v Westchester SC | 46% / 25% / 29% | 2–2 ✗ |
| Oct 24 | USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies v Sporting Club Jacksonville | 78% / 14% / 8% | 2–0 ✓ |
This season, replayed
Before the live record has a full season in it, here is the same odds engine replayed over every professional game this season: each game predicted using only the games before it. Teams start the season level here, while the live model carries ratings over from last season, so this is the harder test.
| League | Games | Called correctly | Brier score | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All leagues | 1,757 | 51% | 0.614 | 1.026 |
| MLS | 465 | 46% | 0.632 | 1.051 |
| MLS Next Pro | 414 | 53% | 0.607 | 1.015 |
| NWSL | 225 | 54% | 0.594 | 0.996 |
| USL League One | 260 | 55% | 0.601 | 1.004 |
| USL Championship | 360 | 49% | 0.624 | 1.041 |
| USL Super League | 33 | 46% | 0.609 | 1.017 |
| Our pick's chance | Games | Predicted | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 296 | 38% | 42% |
| 40-50% | 995 | 44% | 48% |
| 50-60% | 367 | 54% | 62% |
| 60-70% | 90 | 64% | 69% |
| 70-80% | 7 | 72% | 71% |
How to read this
Called correctly counts how often the result we rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) actually happened. Professional soccer is close to a coin toss with a draw in the middle, so no honest model gets near 100%.
Brier score measures the whole forecast, not just the pick: a confident call that goes wrong costs more than a hesitant one. 0 is perfect; saying one-in-three for every outcome scores 0.667.
Calibration asks whether our numbers mean what they say: of the games where our pick had a 60-70% chance, did about 65% of them go our way?
How the ratings behind these odds are built: Methodology. Probabilities are estimates for analysis, never betting advice.